By Augustine Akhilomen
With the 2027 elections just seven months away, major opposition parties will be hoping to cause an upset against the incumbent president and the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Bola Tinubu, for the nation’s number one job.
Recently, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar won the presidential ticket of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Donald Duke emerged as the presidential flagbearer for the People’s Redemption Party (PRP), Adewole Adebayo was elected as the sole presidential candidate for the Social Democratic Party (SDP), and the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) named Peter Obi as its presidential candidate for the country’s 2027 crucial election, setting the stage for another high-profile contest in Africa’s most populous democracy.
Prior to now, these opposition parties, at a historic national summit held in Ibadan, Oyo State capital, in April, announced plans to field one presidential candidate in the 2027 general election.
They made the declaration in a communiqué issued at the end of the summit, where key opposition figures, including Atiku, Peter Obi, Dr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, ex-governor of Rivers State, Rotimi Amaechi, and ex-governor of Osun State, Rauf Aregbesola, among others, met to chart a common strategy.
But that vision collapsed within weeks of their agreement, as the various political actors separately nursed personal ambition of contesting for the 2027 elections. It all buried the coalition’s move to present a single presidential candidate capable of wrestling power from the APC.
Interestingly, it was the same coalition tactics that were deployed by Tinubu and other opposition figures in 2014 to oust former President Goodluck Jonathan in the historic 2015 presidential election that brought in Muhammadu Buhari as president. This defeat marked the first time in Nigeria’s democratic history that an incumbent president lost a presidential election to an opposition candidate.
The defeat was primarily driven by the formation of a formidable mega-opposition coalition, the APC, which successfully brought together major regional and political factions that had historically been fractured. The coalition capitalized on several critical vulnerabilities in Jonathan’s administration. There was indeed an implicit agreement among the opposition leaders that for them to defeat the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), a party that had held sway for many years, they had to forget their individual ambitions and form a coalition that would present a candidate strong and credible enough to pose a threat to President Jonathan. And that was exactly what happened.
However, the 2027 election is shaping up as a rematch involving some of Nigeria’s most recognizable political figures. Peter Obi gained national prominence during the 2023 election through the youth driven Obidient Movement, which leveraged social media and grassroots activism to challenge Nigeria’s traditional political structures. Even though he secured significant support and won approximately 25 percent of the vote, he ultimately finished behind Atiku Abubakar and President Tinubu.
On the other hand, Atiku Abubakar, a former Vice President widely known as a perennial contender in Nigerian politics, having run for the presidency or contested major party primaries multiple times since 1993. His persistent pursuit of the presidency has earned him both the title of an experienced statesman from supporters and the label of a “serial contestant” or “perennial candidate” from prominent critics. Atiku had also recently said that the 2027 election will be the last time he will throw his hat into the ring.
Just like in 2015, Nigeria currently grapples with several pressing national challenges, primarily revolving around severe economic hardship, widespread insecurity, and poor infrastructure. Despite ongoing federal reforms, citizens continue to face high inflation and youth unemployment, while development and political progress remain topics of ongoing national dialogue.
There is no doubt that Tinubu’s All Progressives Congress (APC) retains vast control over state apparatuses, the National Assembly, and state governorships. Backed by significant figures within the ruling structure, the party maintains strong national machinery and the political resources necessary for grassroots mobilization.
Political analysts remain divided on how these conditions could influence the outcome. Some believe public dissatisfaction may create opportunities for opposition candidates, while others argue that a divided opposition could strengthen the ruling party’s chances of retaining power.
Reacting to the development, Professor John Ebhomien, an All Progressives Congress (APC) chieftain, stated that with opposition parties still fragmented as of mid-2026, the 2027 presidential election is likely going to be in favour of the APC, unless there are drastic changes in the next few months.
“The main issue is disunity. PDP, LP, ADC, NDC, and NNPP have all suffered defections to APC, including governors and lawmakers, which weaken their structure and fundraising base. Without a credible coalition or consensus candidate, the opposition risks splitting the anti-APC vote the way it did in 2023. That makes it easier for the ruling party to win with a plurality, especially if it leverages on incumbency and federal resources.
“However, the outcome is not guaranteed. Voter sentiment will hinge on the economy, security, and Tinubu’s performance by 2027. If discontent is high and a single opposition front emerges, the race could tighten. APC’s internal primaries disputes also show the party is not immune to implosion if grievances are not managed.
“Realistically, expect APC to start as the favourite, but the margin and competitiveness depend on whether the opposition can present one credible alternative and avoid another fractured contest.”
In the same vein, Barrister Olalekan Ojo, a Lagos human rights lawyer, believed that a divided opposition may not have what it takes to wrestle power from Tinubu.
His words: “President Tinubu has started the 2027 presidency race with powerful incumbency advantages: federal patronage, majority state governments, control of the National Assembly, and a historical fact that no sitting Nigerian president since 1999, except Goodluck Jonathan, has lost re-election.
“These are structural advantages that opposition parties cannot easily overcome. The opposition’s problem is not policy, it is fragmentation.
“In 2023, the split vote across Tinubu, Atiku, and Peter Obi handed the APC victory with a historically low vote share. Without a unified opposition candidate in 2027, history will simply repeat itself.
“Three variables matter: the economy, if Nigerians feel no relief from fuel subsidy removal, naira depreciation, and the cost-of-living crisis by late 2026, voter anger could be decisive, and the NDC may have an advantage – if it broadens its northern reach – with the intra-APC tensions subsisting, particularly among northern stakeholders who feel politically marginalised.
“The APC is the strong favourite to retain the presidency. A competitive contest is only possible if the opposition unites behind one candidate, something it has shown little appetite for. The opposition’s greatest enemy is itself.”
Also, United States-based academic, Prof. Farooq Kperogi has said that the political opposition in Nigeria is too fragmented to defeat President Bola Tinubu in 2027.
He stated, “I don’t even see why any opposition person is campaigning; it’s already a lost election. Tinubu does not even need to do a lot. The incumbency factor that he has, and the capacity to persuade people to vote against their interests through financial inducement, which is a thing in Nigeria. And in all fairness a thing among voters everywhere, because even in the United States there are people who vote against their economic interests because of values.
“All opposition appeals to the same slice of voters from 1999 till now, but they’re now splintered. Peter Obi, Goodluck Jonathan, and Atiku Abubakar all appeal to the same kind of voters. It’s an even worse situation than 2023.”
Nigeria’s 2027 election will be closely watched across Africa and beyond because of the country’s economic influence, population size, and strategic importance on the continent. Even though the stakes are very high, observers are of the view that the opposition leaders should have forfeited their personal ambitions and form a veritable alliance that will be strong enough to defeat Tinubu and the ruling party in next year’s presidential and general elections.
As it is, it will be extremely difficult in the current circumstances for a national and acceptable opposition figure to emerge due to the divisions that currently exist among them. And the absence of that will largely be in favour of the President and his ruling party. It’s still difficult to comprehend how the fragmented opposition think they can win when they are not united and formidable enough.