Since the beginning of the political romance between FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu some months prior to the 2023 election, hardly would a moment pass without pundits examining and perhaps analyzing the romance between the duo.
While Wike eventually became a Minister after using his hold on his party the PDP and three other governors to divert votes of his party for Tinubu during the elections, he has emerged stronger than his co-travellers like Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo state and former Governor Sam Ortom of Benue, the duo who has since stepped aside the club of erstwhile partners of now President Tinubu.
But then, not done with the decimation of his party even if left with the carcass after the Supreme Court ruling which gave his faction control of PDP, Wike has continued to be Tinubu’s poster boy Minister and political ‘hatchet’ man .
This he has done to the consternation of Makinde who couldn’t get any of his men in Tinubu’s cabinet.
But while Makinde licked his wound and called out Tinubu for breaking a political arrangement unknown to many, Wike has continued to wax ‘stronger’ even when APC strong men like National Secretary, Senator Surajudeen Ajibola Bashiru has constantly battled him not to draw a wedge in the ruling party or attempt to interfere in its affairs under the guise of mobilising for Tinubu’s re-election .
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However, if the APC governors and egg-heads are not far sighted enough to know that Wike with Tinubu’s tacit support, is out to work another strange political formula to ensure Tinubu’s victory during next years’ election and also to ensure his own political relevance and survival after next election, then they are being myopic
The Rainbow Coalition as plotted by Wike and now being effected by Tinubu with last Wednesday’s formal inclusion of two opposition parties namely Governor Charles Soludo of APGA and newly elected Osun Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord party is significant.
By agreeing to join ‘ reelection drive, Soludo and Adeleke have surreptitiously surrendered their national platforms to ensure Tinubu’s reelection ,while Wike has also used what is left of the PDP to support Tinubu.
Though, none of the parties has decided to merge Tinubu’s APC, it is doubtful whether they will remain political orphans after the 2027 elections.
With Wike’s appointment to supervise election in Rivers state and the FCT and the pet project of getting his men to contest the Senate and Reps seat in both states, he is gradually building a party and platform that will negotiate positions in Tinubu’s government post 2027.
If he is able to deliver Rivers and FCT and drown the opposition parties in 2027,then he would have established a platform to negotiate his future using what is left of the PDP.
This subtle move perhaps explains APC governors’ disagreement with Wike’s Rainbow coalition seen as a threat to their future especially those governors in their second term.
To them, Wike ‘s Rainbow coalition is using the APC to carve out a political platform across party boundaries for himself.
This to the governors is a direct threat and assault on them.
As for President Tinubu, the biggest project now is reducing the strength of the Opposition especially in the South to reduce both the influence of Abubakar Atiku of ADC and Peter Obi of NDC.
Since Soludo and Umahi, Works Minister are from the South East, the former’s appointment last Wednesday to lead the Anambra State assault against Atiku and Obi is a formal mandate handed over to Soludo and it is not impossible that should he use his party to secure at least 25% votes for Tinubu,I t would make a marked difference for him contrary to his poor showing in 2023.
For Umahi, easily the most visible voice for the APC in SE, his collaboration with Governors Hope Uzodinma of Imo, Peter Mbah of Enugu and Francis Nwifuru of Ebonyi may mark a significant turning point in voting pattern in SE with probable reduction of Obi’s influence.
Whichever way it goes, Wednesday’s formal appointment of Adeleke to coordinate Osun for Tinubu is a deliberate move to reduce opposition to Tinubu in his SW base and should Adeleke swing the votes, his jumping ship to the APC after the Presidential election is a done deal.
Adeleke it would be recalled made spirited moves to cross to APC in Osun, but for the brickwall he met in the local wing of APC in spite of Tinubu’s warm embrace.
Now that he has defeated the henchmen in Osun APC, Tinubu playing the role of a ‘father’ has won for himself more support beyond his party.
With total votes of above 1.1million by APC and Accord party during last off season election, turning such to Tinubu will strengthen him against votes from opposition figures like Atiku and Obi in the region.
Thus while Tinubu is holding firmly to his SW base he is reducing opposition’s strong bases in Oyo, Anambra, Enugu, Rivers,Osun,Adamawa and Bauchi states.
Wike’s challenge to governors not to claim ‘we won’ the election if Tinubu wins but they aren’t able to deliver their own state is putting them on their toes after all Tinubu it is clear, is pandering to Wike in his Rainbow coalition project.
But as a strategist, Tinubu may also be looking for ways to pacify the governors who felt threatened by the Wike project as regards how it will affect them.
In Ogun state, the cold attitude of former governor Ibikunle Amosun who last Thursday threw his weight behind Senator Iyabo Obasanjo, his benefactor’s daughter, may affect Tinubu’s showing in spite of state PDP chapter’s promise to support Tinubu.
But his decision to co- opt his long time associate, Senator Gbenga Daniel into the Presidential campaign council is another scheming by Tinubu to make both Gov Dapo Abiodun and his political ‘foe’ to work together especially now that Hon Ladi Adebutu, ,Daniel’s candidate in PDP, has lost his ticket to carelessness in tactics.
With the likes of Amosun among Egba political elite, their preference for Iyabo Obasanjo may have been informed by the choice of Senator Solomon Adeola as APC flag bearer.
The crack in the wall in Oyo APC as a result of the loss of the state ticket by Adebayo Adelabu to Senator Sarafadeen Ali may affect the party just as Gov Makinde is bent on his party, the APM coming out victorious in both the Presidential and national assembly election.
With the growing criticism against him, he may not be able to score more votes than Tinubu.
For now, Ibadan and by extension Oyo state, is the only state in the South West out of APC rule.
For the first time in recent years, Lagos recorded 7 million registered voters to best Kano state to the second position. This is significant.
Yes,its cosmopolitan nature may still make Kano record more voter turn out.
Except that political leaders in Lagos seems to have woken up from the lackadaisical approach which makes them lost to Labor Party in 2023.
Besides, the Obedient youths who propelled Obi to national limelight seem to have cooled down due to the crisis of leadership in LP and other extraneous issues.
Today, with 33 governors ,two of which are in coalition with APC, the opposition is left with only three states of Oyo, Abia and Bauchi.
Interestingly, both Abia governor,Alex Otti and Bauchi’s Adamu Mohammed have not come out to condemn or approve Tinubu but their body language speaks volume.
Tinubu has also through both Senator Abdulaziz Yari, the Director General of his campaign and former Governor Shekarau of Kano State been able to break through the ranks of Islamic clerics in the North and the Kwankwasiya movement in Kano, Nigeria’s largest state to reduce opposition influence except something dramatic happens between now and the next ninety days.
For now, only the North Western states of Sokoto,Kebbi,Katsina,Kaduna,Zamfara are states where Northern irredentism still holds sway to support Atiku while the repression of the past visited by Fulani leadership may make North Central states of Plateau,Benue,Nassarawa and Niger tough for Atiku to penetrate. They remain swing states.
As for the North east, it still remains a strong hold for APC especially in view of Tinubu’s refusal to trade Vice President Kashim Shettima for Senator Kwakwanso.
The activities of City Boy Movement led by Seyi Tinubu in parts of the country especially the South East, North Central and West may have titled the youths behind Tinubu while the students loan,NELFUND project fund has become a campaign tool for the party.
With about two million students beneficiary most of who are from the Universities in the North, the contest wouldn’t be the same as it was in 2023.
The decision of the EFCC to open investigation on Atiku,though easily perceived as political, will prove enough distraction for his campaign focusing on economic hardship in in the land.
For now,all cards are still on the table for who takes the coveted trophy now squarely between Tinubu and Atiku with Obi trailing behind as he did in 2023.