2027: Beyond the Presidency








President Bola Ahmed Tinubu today stands out as a leader who seems determined to change the narration about governance in Nigeria.

Though, he has received condemnation and the reverse from it from all quarters,yet the penchant to make history even at political risk to himself has continued to define his governance,like him or hate him.

Since he assumed leadership on May 29,2023, he has told at least three sets of leaders from Nigerias major tribes, to demand from their Governors and by extension ask them to tell the people how they’ve been spending increased funds being disbursed to them since 2023.

Reason: Such funds had more than quadruple yet no signs in the life of the people to cushion the effect of petroleum subsidy and other painful reforms he introduced upon assumption of power.

Why is this preamble necessary for the issue in discussion.

Nigeria since independence runs three tiers of government, viz Federal,State and Local government which on their own has defined functions allocated to them in all the post independence constitutions, both military and civilian.

To implement this functions and responsibilities, revenue is shared according to prescribed rules in the constitution by the Revenue Mobilisation and Fiscal Commision.

In turn, the Federation Account Allocation Committee(FAAC) is responsible for disbursement to of revenues to the three tiers of government.

According to the Current Vertical Allocation Formula,the sharing breakdown among the three tiers of government is as follows:
. Federal Government: 52.68%
. State Governments( 36 states):26.72%
.Local Government Councils(774 LGAs):20.60%
. Special Funds/ Deductions:
.Derivation Fund: At least 13% of mineral revenue goes directly to oil-producing states.

. Other statutory allocations include separate provisions for the Federal Capital Territory (FCT),ecological funds,stabilization funds,and natural resource development.

It is pertinent to note that this formula has been religiously followed by successive governments.

The various state governments and local governments perform annual rituals of budget presentations to their states- both during military and civilian rule.

In actual fact,as a correspondent in Ogun state in the late 80s during military regimes, i attended several budget briefings by local government chairmen who normally addressed their subjects during which questions came from them on their observations and reservations on projects execution.

Today,it is doubtful whether any local government does that again.

Reason: Most state governors sat on their local government allocations using the obnoxious State/ local government Joint Account.

In spite of the above, since the advent of fourth republic in 1999, the focus of an average Nigerian is on the President of the country who is expected to meet the aspiration of an average person.

This attitude either came from lack of enough education of civilian rule or the functions of three tiers of government or rather the excessive fixation of an average Nigerian on the office of the President.

Tinubus burden:

Since he came to power,President Tinubu in the light of his reforms especially the removal of subsidy ,has come under immense pressure from Nigerians asking him to do something to alleviate the sufferings and hardship.

In the contrary,the various tiers of government have shared humongous amounts of monthly allocation from the FAAC to implement impactful projects that will reduce the sufferings in the grassroots where majority of the population reside.

While the Federal government has embarked on construction of various legacy projects-some controversial others laudable, little is known of state government some of which embarked on esoteric projects that has little bearing on the life of the common man.

Between June 2023 and August 2026, total annual FAAC disbursements are shared as follows:
2023: Total Annual FAAC disbursements reached roughly N10.14 trillion made up of
. State governments( 36 states & FCT) received about N3.92 trillion,while the Federal government received approximately N3.96 trillion.
2024:
.Total annual disbursements climbed to about N12.37 trillion( with some full-year cumulative metrics touching N5.38 trillion for the 36 states and FCT and N4.65 trillion for the Federal government).

2025:
. In the first eleven months alone FAAC distributions hit N33.27 trillion(reflecting a sharp climb in monthly averages,with the Federal government receiving- N6.86 trillion and states getting – N6.71 trillion over that 11 month span).
. 2026 (Jan -July/ Aug):
. Monthly allocations have consistently exceeded N2.2 trillion to N3.0 trillion per month.
. For the first half (HI) of 2026,out of N12.59 trillion in distributive revenue,the Federal Government received N4.57 trillion,the 36 states shared N4.47 trillion,and Local Government Councils received N3.13 trillion (plus N864.89 billion in 13 % derivation funds for oil -producing states).
. By August 2026, monthly distribution reached N2.338 trillion (Federal Government: N804.897 billion,states:N794.313 billion, Local Governments : N555.142 billion).

From the above, it is clear why Tinubu told both the Arewa Elders Forum,Afenifere- Yoruba group and Ohaneze leaders who paid him courtesy calls to ask their Governors what they are doing with the money received which has more than doubled since he took power.

Indeed,recently,Ogun state governor,who doubles as Chairman of Southern Governors Forum,Prince Dapo Abiodun, told those who care to listen that questions as to how subsidy is spent should be directed to state governors who are part of the beneficiaries.

If this is so,why has the leading opposition parties especially the contenders like former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi of ADC and NDC respectively kept their focus only on the Presidency.

Their campaign got so interesting that every available dart is thrown on the direction of the President to the extent that many viewed it as becoming a personal war.

Atiku,throwing caution to the wind call the President by first name..’Bola’to the charging of many who condemn his attitude and disrespect to the office which he is struggling to occupy.

He did not stop at that,he asked the President to give account of how subsidy money is spent, if he must probe him for the failure of the $16 billion power project which he supervised under the watchful eyes of former President Olusegun Obasanjo.

Atikus anger is also kindled by the indictment of the ICC on the alleged kickback and role he played in the stalled Mambilla Power project.

As for Peter Obi,his campaign dwell more on Igbo Presidency and the victim campaign of South easterners.

Strangely,none of the top opposition leaders have spoken of how to gain control of the 36 states which made up the federation.

The top opposition leaders also forgot the axium that the health of the 36 state governments is the health of the country.

Why is it that nobody has spoken of need to focus more on the states which are sitting on the monthly FAAC allocation and are closer to the people than the federal government?.

Why is it that nobody is asking the states how much they have saved from the triple FAAC monthly allocations to cater for the rainy day.?

Since,both Atiku and Obi has vowed to revert to fuel subsidy,have anybody asked them who are the beneficiaries of the subsidy and from where they hoped to get the funding for the new regime.?

Atiku in his back and forth argument, once said the subsidy regime will last only six months,does he intend to dip his hands into the Foreign exchange reserve now conservatively put at $55 billion to finance the subsidy and open letters of credit for our imports.?

If this is the game plan for either or both of the leading aspirants who has neither explained how they would fund the subsidy regime,then it simply means ,they have no fresh ideas to run the country but only interested in removing the occupant of the office and maintain the status quo.

If the intention is to spend our Forex reserve for the six months subsidy reversal,then it is clear they have no fresh ideas at governance but solely fulfil their life ambition and occupy the post the way late President Muhammadu Buhari did for eight years and allowed scavengers to pillage the country.

In the alternative,is Atiku and Obi intent in using ways and means to print money to pay salaries of its staff and borrow to shore up the value of the naira which has remain stable in the past two years.

Since, it is clear the strength of our currency is dependent on our foreign reserves,when it is depleted to fund subsidy,how do we maintain the relative stability of the economy.

If this is so,are we not going the way of Zimbabwe which towards the end of late President Robert Mugabes regime, reduced the country’s currency to worthless piece of paper carried in bags to buy bread by citizens .

Why is it that none of our presidential candidates has presented themselves to a robust and intellectual debate on the viability of any alternative they have to turn arround the economy.?

It is clear the clamor by the opposition is more on the person occupying the seat than on the task of holding the office.

How would political parties which could not make any appreciable impact in the three bye- elections held in FCT,Osun,Adamawa, Kano,Kaduna and local government election held in Enugu, be able to clinch the Presidency?

Since presidential election involved the whole country as a single constituency, how would the absence of the parties in the grassroot,wards,state and federal constituencies translate into winning the Presidency.?

Since politics is a game of numbers, could a President perform without the constituent sub- nationals in the country.?

Why is it that 96 days to the Presidential election, the various opposition figures have not articulated any programme to win the subnationals, 31 states of which are in the ruling party,part of their campaigns but only focus on clinching the Presidency?

Why is it that in an age when nations are talking of devolution of powers, our presidential aspirants are focused on the big elephant in the room without getting its appendages?.

The campaign for the Presidential election has obviously been turned into a personal campaign riddled with emotions, sentiments and personal score rather than presenting clear alternatives to issues.

Maybe the aspirants are more concerned with getting hold of the Presidency to corner the 256 MDAs and access the remaining resources of the nation enveloped ny a cancerous systemic rot.

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