There is no doubt that the opposition political parties since independence have always been pulled apart by the inability of the leaders to sink their individual differences, come together to take power.
It is also proven over time that organised opposition groups have severally failed not because they are not intent in taking power but principally for the fact that defeating incumbent political parties in Nigeria has always posed a problem for various reasons.
In an era where narrow and personal ambition and spoils of office have become the main attraction for seeking power, the opposition is weakened by the inability of different contending forces to sink their differences and pursue a common goal.
In the first republic politics, differing political ideology and goals by leaders like the late Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe of the National Council of Nigeria Citizens,NCNC and the opposition Action Group in the Western Region came as a good example of differing ideology of their leaders and personal ambition.
While Dr Azikwe believed in the centralization of power as shown by the continuation of Unitary system of government and the AG preference for federalism as contained in the Independent constitution became one of the reasons for the inability of the duo to come together.
This also explained why the alliance between AG and the NCNC which produced the United Progressives Grand Alliance, UPGA failed to bite as the NCNC developed cold feet in upholding the agreement to boycott the 1964 general elections.
The boycott by the AG in the then Western region made the alliance fail and saw the NCNC also returning to its vomit by joining forces with the Northern Peoples Congress,NPC, which ultimately swallowed the NCNC.
Since the AG of Western region always preferred welfarist ideology philosophy , the party couldn’t carry along the NCNC to carve out Midwestern region from the West ostensibly to reduce the size and by extension the influence of the leader, Chief Obafemi Awolowo and by extension the AG being restricted to the old Western region.
This was effected towards enabling the alliance of NPC with NCNC, worked with possible ostracisation of the AG.
With the disputed result of the 1964 Western region election, the Western Region with Awolowo in prison slipped into a period of unrest culminating in the military take over which terminated the First republic.
This analogy is needed if we are to examine the background to the eventual emergence and the birth of the All Progressives Congress, APC in 2013 and its breaking the record of a first opposition party to defeat the incumbent.
It is important to note that perhaps this came about when the dissenting voices in All Nigeria Peoples Party,ANPP out of which came the Congress of Progressive Change,CPC , and the New tendency in Peoples Democratic Party-NewPDP all came together to embrace the main opposition then, the Action Congress of Nigeria,ACN which then was also an offshoot of what is left of the Alliance for Democracy which hiterto had the South West in its pocket.
Thus, that the leaders of the new parties downplayed the issue of personal and individual ambition remains the best asset.
That the issue of flag bearer was not allowed to rear its head until the coalition was perfected remained their biggest asset.
Ironically, this issue remains the Achilles’ heel which has since afflicted the fledgling opposition in the African Democratic Congress . It failed to achieve cohesion.
That the ADC has so far failed is not the issue but that the ambition of stakeholders who are intent ontaking the juicy part of the cake before it is baked.
The Federal Capital Territory,FCT election last Saturday presented the last opportunity of the new main opposition ADC to prove its mettle.
It is also ironic that between 2013 and 2015, governors were abandoning the ruling PDP for a new coalition in APC .
It is ironic as contrary to expectations then, the opposition then welcomed defectors from the ruling party which signified the beginning of its systemic weakening.
In spite of the systemic ‘killing’ of the PDP due to irreconcilable differences within its leadership rank, the inability of the new baby – the ADC,to bite in last Saturday’s election during which the PDP came back from death to win a local government to come second to APC which won five local governments.
This may be an eventual death knell for the ADC in future elections in spite of its big wigs who jumped the ship of the PDP.
What is more,the winning of the Abuja Municipal Area Council,AMAC by the PDP candidate from the NyesomWike faction..recognised by INEC, is an indication that Wike probably left the PDP Ibadan wing with the head of the party while the tail was left to struggle for its survival
It is also clear that what was left of the PDP could not extricate their followers from Wike.
While both ADC national Secretary, Rauf Aregbesola and its leader Atiku Abubakar boasted of using last week’s Abuja polls as a litmus test of their strength against the APC in 2027, result of the election even with Peter Obi of the factionalized Labour Party points to the contrary.
The result only portrays one thing..the ADC is able to win supporters and ‘voters’ on social media but failed to counter Wike’s blitzkrieg in FCT.
With Saturday’s result,does it mean that January next year’s election is only between the APC and Nigerians of no party affiliation or that the ADC,PDP and LP crawling from behind are keeping their gun powder dry before they unleash it during the presidential contest?.
If Wike could deliver five councils to APC and keep the AMAC with its Metropolitan strength to himself , isn’t it not a sign that the other parties are fringe parties, just there for the sake of it?
With 30 governors in the kitty who probably have more resources to expend during next year’s election in the states they are in control, how far could the ADC/Obi crowd go in wrestling power from the incumbent in Aso rock.?
Inability of opposition parties to bury differences and ambition to give the ruling government a fight is a disservice to robust democracy and by inference good governance.
Strong opposition is the best check on misgovernance in any polity and the absence of it in a multi cultural, multi ethnic and multi religious setting like Nigeria is very dangerous to the attainment of democratic ethos and values.
It is quite that the opposition parties have more work to do having failed last week to carry along voters in metropolis who in general terms are more enlightened and cosmopolitan than voters in the urban and rural areas.
The opposition is in dire need of a stronger rallying point to mobilise against the ruling party in power.
Interesting times lie ahead in the race towards the Aso Villa.