At certain periods in an individual’s life,there are moments of dilemma often caused by indecision.
The indecision often places such persons at crossroads…. which way to go.
This becomes so when choices made at such periods could either ruin or promote such person’s goal or destiny in life.
In the last few months since the beginning of Nigeria’s politics of defection by politicians of all hues,two personalities have and still have difficulty in making clear choices about which way to go in the race towards elective positions next year and 2027.
The duo has been caught in the web of political evolution in an era devoid of ideology but survival in the murky waters of Nigeria’s politics.
Their dilemma becomes more difficult given the fact that the race for the next election is still far.(at least for Peter Obi),the earlier you enter the race the more challenging and expensive it becomes.
Also the fluidity of the county’s political culture has made the participants jumping the gun before the real action, in spite of its expensive nature.
The two personalities in this regard are Governor Ademola Adeleke of Osun state who is facing re-election next year and Mr Peter Obi of the Labour Party, LP whose party is divided down the line about whether to merge or enter into a coalition to face the 2027 Presidential election.
The challenge becomes more tasking since Obi has to cross the bridge of his South East following to other regions in the country to make a decisive impact in the presidential election.
As for Adeleke,his dilemma arose primarily because of the strained political relationship he had with former governor and Minister, Rauf Aregbesola, whose support through the undermining of his party, the APC, gave Adeleke the votes needed to defeat Gboyega Oyetola in the 2022 governorship election.
While he won in 17 local governments, Oyetola won in 13 local governments of Osun state.
It is important to note that the election of Adeleke was largely caused by schism in APC with Aregbesola’s supporters diverting Ife -Ijesa votes to Adeleke who had the overwhelming cum historical support of his political and tribal origin,Ede East and West electorates.
With the parting of ways between the duo,Adeleke is in need of Osun Central votes if he must remain in power via his tottering Peoples Democratic Party,PDP.
But with Aregbesola’s defection to African Democratic Congress,ADC, Adeleke had to court Oyetola’s APC .
Since Oyetola, now a Minister under President Bola Tinubu, whose second term nomination by APC is a fait accompli, the party’s support on who wins next year’s governorship election is crucial if Adeleke is to retain his seat.
But then, Adeleke has to contend with Osun state chapter of APC whose members are cold towards his attempt to use it to get a second term, having fought a bitter war to wrest power from it in 2022.
The political landscape of the state was jolted penultimate week, when desperate politicians in the Osun chapter of APC concoted a fake press statement purportedly written by Chief Bisi Akande, former state governor and first interim national chairman of the party in which he allegedly kicked against the state APC chapter accepting Adeleke.
Akande told Newdawnngr.com that the fake statement is the handiwork of politicians who wanted to drag him into the murky waters of the state politics.
He said that he never authored such fake news aimed at preventing Adeleke from defecting to APC.
For him, as an elder statesman, he has refrained from dabbling into the running of the party in the state but advised Adeleke to follow the party’s rule and process by joining from the ward level as stipulated by its constitution.
Again, Adeleke’s fate is worsened by his lieutenants and cabinet members who, eager to join APC, obviously to follow the defection train all over the country, encouraged the governor, who often spends more time on the dancing floor, to defect. They assured him of their support for him anywhere his political fortune will be better served.
It is apparent that their advice is pure self interest.
In addition to state officials and members of Adeleke’s cabinet, Senator Fadahunsi from Osun East and some House of Reps members have already left PDP for APC.
The question now for Adeleke is:
Can the head survive without the body? Can he move forward politically without his lieutenants?
Though, Olagunsoye Oyinlola,former Osun governor feels Adeleke by defecting to APC will put his political career in jeopardy, leading APC state leaders view his three- year tenure as a failure, adding that his coming would not add to the opposition party’s fortune.
Where then does Adeleke’s fortune lie, more so when his elder brother and sponsor, businessman Deji Adeleke had paid nocturnal visits to President Bola Tinubu obviously to support the latter’s re election in 2027?.
As a businessman with diverse interests , the senior Adeleke who bankrolled his brother’s election, has much to loose should his brother fail to get re- elected or is in conflict with Tinubu.
Not only that, the Adeleke scion, his son, David Adeleke-the singer who sang and campaigned for his uncle’s success in election three years ago, has also started courting Tinubu through his son,Seyi by paying a courtesy call on Tinubu few months ago.
All these political movements, which started before the gale of defections by politicians in the country reached its peak, are not for nothing.
Should Adeleke listen to former governor Oyinlola or swallow his pride and jump ship to APC? Should he risk his chances of re election by abandoning his followers who had defected and carry his cross alone in the August 2026 election?
The next few weeks will decide.
Peter Obi:
Perhaps the most confused among the club of potential and undecided defectors is Peter Obi,Presidential candidate of the Labour Party,LP during the 2023 presidential election.
Since it is difficult for him to dictate to his political bedfellows in the new political vehicle-the ADC,of his ambition not to settle for less, it is also very risky for him to abandon the LP already divided into three factions, as a result of his inability to manage the various contending forces in the party.
For him, it is also difficult to convince his ‘Obedient’ followers to join the ADC while the faction of workers who founded the party is also eager to see his back so as to refocus it for a clear ideological worker- friendly party.
But it is possible that should Obi be audacious enough to return to his earlier vomit-the PDP, which, from sources, is contemplating giving him the Presidential ticket,the Obidients are likely to follow him to PDP.
But then,the fact remains that today,the LP to stand alone could hardly mobilise the mob followership it enjoyed in 2023, neither can it enjoy whole support of the few legislators in state and national assembly elected on the LP platform who have started jumping ship, one by one, to the ruling party, the APC and ADC.
To compound his dilemma, Alex Otti, the only governor of the party presiding over Abia State has stated unequivocally that he is neither defecting to PDP, ADC or even APC.
Who will then fund Obi in his presidential bid since it is pretty difficult for any serious businessman in Nigeria to solely fund presidential election in two electoral circles?
Another hurdle for Obi is the full commitment of deep- pocket ‘Obidients’-home and abroad, who may not be particularly happy with the management of the funds commited during the last election.
Would they be committed to Obi being a running mate to Atiku or any other candidate from the North?
In spite of the fact that all potential presidential candidates in the ADC viz Atiku,Rotimi Amaechi and Obi himself have promised to serve only one term, could the party and the losers in the primary throw their weight behind any of them who emerged the winner?
As things stand today,Obi has to commence the Reconciliation and mobilisation of the different factions of the LP since it is obvious he can hardly get the ADC ticket, likely to go to Abubakar Atiku.
Atiku today is the arrow head and rallying point of the dissatisfied ruling elite from the North who are out of the power equation in the country and desperate to do all to stop Tinubu’s second term.
Their major fear is that should Tinubu get the second term ticket,he would institute policies-political and economic- that will retire them from politics and promote young northerners to succeed him.
Interesting times ahead for the contenders at all levels.