Ordinarily, a period of two years which translates to half term of an electoral calendar is supposed to be a period of stock- taking not only by the incumbent government but also by the opposition aspiring to replace the incumbent.
It is exactly two years since the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s federal government mounted the saddle of leadership.
Hence, for somebody who emerged winner in a very tight race, the opposition is supposed to put him under serious observation of his policies, actions and or inaction and suggest ways to resolve the issues of governance which party politics and power are all about.
Those who won election are not supposed to rest on their oars in this type of situation, neither are the losers, because they are supposed to put the winners on their toes knowing fully well that their action is being closely watched by the opposition.
This was the type of opposition displayed by the late sage, Chief Obafemi Awolowo during the first and second republics.
Policies and issues are patiently diagnosed,dissected and criticised to put the governments on their toes for the good of democracy and benefit of the country.
Then for the National Party of Nigeria, NPN, responses of Chief Awolowo to issues and policies were always taken seriously for their robustness and clinical analysis.
Today, over four decades later, the game of politics and role of opposition have fallen short of their bite and impact.
In Nigeria, just as living is as dangerous and precious as life itself, the game of politics which by inference defines life and governance has assumed a life of its own.
This is as a result of the absence of a well -coordinated opposition party that could put government on its toes.
Not that politics should dominate the affairs of the nation but the apparent lack of a credible and intelligent opposition has made governance stultified by lack of alternate ideas canvassed in the open to put the ruling government on its toes .
In the past two years, the lack of concrete criticism of the many policies rolled out by the Tinubu -led administration by the opposition especially the leading parties ,the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP and Labour Party, LP, has resulted in a lack of issue- based opposition even when we have a lot of policies and issues like Economy, Education, Infrastructure and reforms of several sectors crying for the attention of both the ruling party and opposition.
Instead,what we have is criticism packed with hatred, jealousy, bitterness and an uncoordinated rivalry as if the nation is yet to come out of the 2023 election.
Critism based on rivalry, self centredness and promotion of parochial interests could hardly move a government.
One would have expected that both former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Mr Peter Obi of the PDP and LP would have collectively learnt why they failed to defeat Tinubu in 2023 and close ranks by coming together with a robust criticism of major policy issues being implemented by Tinubu- led APC and proffer alternatives .
For record, both Atiku and Obi polled a total of 13,086,073 votes which if combined could have denied Tinubu the presidential seat since he would have come a distant second with 8,794,726 votes.
If both Atiku and Obi are indeed pursuing a collective interest to salvage the nation as they often claim, efforts should have been made to assemble experts to proffer and push out alternatives to the various policies with which they would’ve gingered Nigerians to put the Tinubu government on its toes.
That today,the Atiku PDP which had eleven states but today struggling to retain eight of such states having tragically lost Delta,Rivers and Akwa Ibom to the ruling APC is bad enough.
What is more, the inability of both to separately wield together several conflicting interests in their party leadership is a sign that they may not pose any serious challenge to the Tinubu government already warming up to retain its seat in 2027.
While it is clear to all intent and purpose that zoning of national party posts is one of the immediate sources of problem in PDP intertwined with Atiku’s personal ambition, Obi’s loss of control and inability to arrest schism in Labour is also attributable to his inability to render account of stewardship vis a vis accounts of the party after the Presidential election.
That both PDP and Labour are saddled with resolving posts of National secretaries is symbolic.
The two positions have put the leadership, followership of both parties in disarray, all due to the personal ambition and different tendencies pulling the parties apart.
That Atiku could declare his readiness to get the coalition to contest on any party platform is akin to announcing the demise of the PDP while Obi’s inconsistent flirtations with Atiku, El Rufai-who practically has no party is curious.
Also Rabiu Kwakwanso’s futile attempt to hold on to Kano is a symptom of a weak opposition being pulled down by conflict of interests deep enough to prevent a serious Coalition.
The question you then ask is,Who leads the Coalition?
In 2013, when the then Progressives Governors Forum, PGF, came together to kick- start the birth of APC, you hardly heard of public and open discontent within the ranks of the then ACN,ANPP and CPC which governors formed the nucleus of the new party.
They concentrated on attracting and poaching joiners from the then ruling PDP .
On the other hand, what you have today is internal wrangling within the parties which has weighed down the potency of the Coalition..
If the PGF came into APC with their followers,the Coalition is today coalescing into a stateless ADC which neither had a state nor strong leaders in the background popular enough to lead a movement that could unsettle APC with the resources at its disposal.
ADC today has several and separate heads in PDP,LP with different interests which may separately work on different schemes to attain power if the Coalition ever has a bite.
With the apparent loss of Rivers,Delta,Akwa Ibom and Edo states,funding for the ADC presidential
elections looks like an uphill task.
Even with disgruntled followers of former President Muhammadu Buhari left behind by the Tinubu government,series of EFCC cases on some like Abubakar Mallami. Malami, ex AGF and Babachir Lawal, already facing opposition from his Kebbi home state may not make funding required come easy.
Since Atiku has bankrolled three previous campaigns in 2007,2011 ,2015 with substantial support from Uduaghan’s Delta in 2023, 2027 may not be so easy .
This is one of the reasons why late Moshood Abiola didn’t accept the idea of another election after the annulment. It is hardly possible for somebody to fund presidential elections in two consecutive electoral calendar.
With 22 states already in its kitty and the likes of Governor Umo Enoh of Akwa Ibom struggling desperately to deliver his entire cabinet and state to APC, it is doubtful if the PDP as one not a disjointed body be able to record any significant showing in South South as it did in 2023.
The above is not in any way to portray the invincibility of the ruling APC whose governors across the region cannot boast of having used the triple finances they’ve been getting from the Federation account judiciously in their states to lessen the pangs of the tough economic policies of the Tinubu administration.
In the last two weeks or so,Ministers at the Federal level have been reeling out their achievements anchored on the Renewed Hope Initiative of President Tinubu.
How come we’ve not seen any critical analysis and criticism of the ‘achievements ‘by the opposition which is focused only on managing deep intra- party disputes strong enough to work against the success of the coalition.
Another perspective of a weak house is the personalities from the North and South like El Rufai,coming out of a cabinet rejection, Rotimi Amaechi who has really not accepted the outcome of the 2023 presidential primaries, Kayode Fayemi of Ekiti, another contestant whose successor, Ekiti governor Oyebanji, is now torn between loyalty to him,his Ekiti people and President Tinubu.
It is still in doubt whether Rauf Aregbesola with his Omoluabi group could still ruffle enough feathers in Osun State with APC local government chairmen still in office.
His romance with Kwakwanso of NNPP is still not yet birthed.
This could be courtesy of his hobnobbing with APC at the Federal level.
Even Kwankwaso’s Kwakwansiya Movement in Kano is being surreptitiously undermined by his surrogate Governor Kabir Yusuff.
In Ogun state,former Governor Ibikunle Amosun is treading softly and mobilizing to retrieve his followers hunted down by Governor Dapo Abiodun and probably waiting to get his pound of flesh as the former battles Abuja and Lagos forces to determine his successor in 2027.
But it is hard to say if Abiodun could succeed in anointing his successor if his smarter predecessors like Chief Segun Osoba, Senator Gbenga Daniel and Amosun failed to determine their successors.
The opposition’s failure to galvanize and strongly put the Tinubu led administration on its toes but instead prematurely push for power has inadvertently pushed Tinubu to prey on its governors and members before the 2027 race actually kicks off .
The APC has since been out on full- throttle of killing the opposition before it could bite .
Except the disjointed opposition figures and parties map out an intensive issue based propaganda to ginger the undecided and silent majority of Nigerians to vote otherwise in 2027, as Donald Trump did in the United States by getting the silent white minority to “take back”their country, the margin of defeat by Tinubu in the 2027 election may be a moonslide compared to the very tight 2023 race.
The nation waits.